Navigating The Growing ’Liquidity Hole’

Authored by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report,

The stock market soared in the first half of the year partly due to record inflows from foreign investors.

’The rally in the technology sector was driven in large part by an unprecedented surge of international flows into US equities. June’s inflow was by far the greatest monthly flow on record.’ https://t.co/bbyDjTkctk pic.twitter.com/1S5P5wDwEt

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 18, 2023

But as the late, great Justin Mamis used to say, “foreigners and dentists are the last to buy.”

’The revenue isn’t there yet, and might never come. If Evans’ experience is a canary in a coal mine, the whole generative AI field, at least at current valuations, could come to a fairly swift end.’ https://t.co/VEGLjkOJdB pic.twitter.com/NVIRirdPCV

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 17, 2023

A mania surrounding artificial intelligence also played a part but what if it “turns out to be a dud”?

”Where you had a lot of excess liquidity, all of a sudden the pieces that have held liquidity up so high are changing quickly as you go out the next 9 to 12 months.” -Greg Jensen https://t.co/XP1pE9uPon

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 15, 2023

Finally, a temporary reprieve from a growing “liquidity hole” also helped to support stock prices but that reprieve is now coming to an end.

Rising long-term interest rates, as a result of the rapidly growing needs of the treasury, could create problems for prices of assets of all sorts. 

’Just letting rates rise high enough to attract more and more of the world’s savings might work for a while, but not without crushing the stock and housing markets. Or the Fed could step in and buy enough bonds to lower rates, rekindling inflation.’ https://t.co/GLgjsR0Fgp

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 13, 2023

More importantly, they could put the Fed in a real bind.

’The gilded metal stands on the precipice of a roaring bull run, perhaps echoing its luminous days of the ’70s and the 2000s.’ https://t.co/VOdzVT0Cmb by @Go_Rozen pic.twitter.com/altPPJhAjz

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 16, 2023

At some point, investors may seek “protection from financial turmoil and mounting inflationary pressures” in an asset that proven an effective safe haven for generations.